Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04ed…5694 other 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%121W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$276
14 days−$276
30 days−$900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$442
sports 37% +$380
finance 0% −$31
world 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -54.8% -59.1% 19% 19% -59.4%
≤30d 75 -37.1% -43.1% 28% 27% -44.3%
≤90d 282 -1.7% -11.0% 43% 43% -10.8%
all 282 -1.7% -11.0% 43% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 43% -10.8%
10% -19.5% 43% -19.4%
15% -27.3% 42% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 40% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$27 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses121 / 161
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions4
Markets (closed)282 / 286
History coverage47d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 49¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$12 -39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $37 −$15 -39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: Draw at halftime? May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL end in a draw? May 30 $31 +$73 +238%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: LDU de Quito (-1.5) May 26 $30 −$9 -28%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 +$2 +6%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $30 −$3 -10%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$7 +22%
Exact Score: Bolton Wanderers FC 1 - 1 Stockport County FC? May 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $36 −$31 -88%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 −$30 -99%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) May 24 $30 −$23 -76%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. SK Brann end in a draw? May 24 $31 −$27 -88%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw? May 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 −$25 -83%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? May 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Real Betis Balompié 1 - 1 Levante UD? May 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5) May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 May 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 +$58 +188%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 +$31 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $30 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $30 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 47h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $30 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 35¢ $23 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $31 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 18d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 19d
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 20d
Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 20d
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 67¢ $30 20d
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.82 · official $118.82 (match) · 608 history records