Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04ed…8809
weather · 1650 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$507 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$469 · open +$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$210
Realized+$469
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1294 / 332
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1626 / 1650
History coverage46d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 23 History 1626 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$14
14 days+$322
30 days+$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 96¢ $10 $30 +$21 (+207%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 52¢ 96¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 37¢ 96¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+163%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 61¢ 97¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Yes 81¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Yes 83¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$17 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$507
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 21¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 84¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 37¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 3¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 85¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 570 +2.2% -7.6% 79% 33% -9.2%
≤30d 1622 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 31% -6.3%
≤90d 1626 +5.0% -5.0% 80% 31% -6.0%
all 1626 +5.0% -5.0% 80% 31% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 31% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 20% -15.0%
15% -22.4% 13% -23.2%
20% -30.0% 9% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.13 · official $210.13 (match) · 3500 history records