Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04ed…0adf sports 858 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$152 (+1%) realized +$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%516W / 342L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$692
7 days+$909
14 days+$909
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 +4.5% -5.4% 63% 54% +4.1%
≤30d 858 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 51% -9.8%
≤90d 858 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 51% -9.8%
all 858 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 51% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 51% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 42% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 32% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 24% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses516 / 342
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)858 / 858
History coverage25d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 858 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $1 $0 +31%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $4 +$1 +41%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 26 $2 $0 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $73 −$73 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 26 $4 +$2 +65%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 $0 +20%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $30 −$5 -16%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $11 +$1 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 25 $402 +$72 +18%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 25 $19 +$1 +7%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $404 +$235 +58%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $279 +$34 +12%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $138 +$128 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $28 +$5 +18%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $81 +$34 +42%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 25 $41 +$25 +62%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $3 +$4 +104%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $34 −$10 -30%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $79 −$70 -89%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $1 +$1 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $94 +$113 +120%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $266 +$81 +30%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $136 +$25 +19%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $1 +$6 +442%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $29 −$22 -76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $3 +$1 +40%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $7 +$7 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $39 +$21 +53%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $179 +$83 +46%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $12 −$11 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $10 −$9 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $166 +$129 +78%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 24 $0 $0 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 76¢ $1 2h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 87¢ $1 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $1 3h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 92¢ $1 3h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 83¢ $2 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 88¢ $4 3h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 60¢ $4 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 89¢ $8 3h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 86¢ $7 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 89¢ $1 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 83¢ $22 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 87¢ $4 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 96¢ $9 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 95¢ $6 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 71¢ $5 5h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $27 5h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 11¢ $3 6h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 89¢ $5 6h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 6h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Athletics 83¢ $2 7h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 37¢ $21 7h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 42¢ $2 7h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 90¢ $2 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 89¢ $6 10h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 87¢ $3 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 95¢ $1 11h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 34¢ $34 11h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 34¢ $1 11h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 90¢ $70 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.92 · official $297.92 (match) · 2740 history records