Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x04ec…580f other 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 193d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,251 (+8%) realized +$19,494 · open +$3,757
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%216W / 148L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$657per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$541est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$44,361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 193d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% +$517
sports 26% +$3,666
world 23% +$5,254
politics 20% +$2,860
tech 3% +$41
culture 1% +$504
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -38.5% -44.3% 32% 25% -1.2%
≤30d 70 -32.9% -39.3% 31% 26% -20.5%
≤90d 240 -14.1% -22.2% 55% 33% -13.5%
all 364 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 35% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 35% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 22% -14.8%
15% -25.9% 17% -23.1%
20% -33.2% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$687) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$222 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$44,361
Realized+$19,494
Unrealized+$3,757
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses216 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$541
Open positions66
Markets (closed)364 / 418
History coverage193d ⚠
Avg bet$657
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 97¢ 99¢ $13,607 $13,865 +$258 (+2%)
Will Alec Pierce be traded? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,487 $2,486 −$1 (-0%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $1,568 $1,874 +$306 (+20%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $722 $1,858 +$1,137 (+157%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 39¢ 68¢ $1,050 $1,822 +$772 (+73%)
Will Mike Evans be traded? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,651 $1,659 +$8 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1,272 $1,594 +$323 (+25%)
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? No 79¢ 98¢ $1,218 $1,499 +$280 (+23%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1,189 $1,276 +$86 (+7%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes 84¢ 89¢ $1,066 $1,127 +$60 (+6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $1,131 $1,002 −$129 (-11%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 44¢ 44¢ $936 $939 +$2 (+0%)
Will Travis Etienne be traded? No 97¢ 99¢ $908 $928 +$20 (+2%)
Will D.K. Metcalf be traded? No 80¢ 96¢ $762 $905 +$143 (+19%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 88¢ 93¢ $794 $837 +$43 (+5%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 83¢ 83¢ $799 $795 −$5 (-1%)
Will Kyler Murray be traded? No 99¢ 99¢ $720 $723 +$4 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $615 $606 −$9 (-2%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $573 $561 −$12 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $477 $490 +$13 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $507 $482 −$25 (-5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $420 $452 +$33 (+8%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Yes 49¢ 55¢ $372 $417 +$45 (+12%)
Will Jalen Carter be traded? No 55¢ 92¢ $239 $398 +$159 (+67%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $224 $371 +$146 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North? Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Omarion Hampton record the most rushing yards by a rookie running Jun 16 $158 −$167 -106%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East? Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Jun 16 $66 −$77 -116%
Will Quinshon Judkins record the most rushing yards by a rookie runnin Jun 16 $129 −$56 -43%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Jun 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Panthers vs. 49ers Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bears vs. Eagles Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $110 +$90 +82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $847 +$775 +92%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$150 +150%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $107 +$93 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $188 −$187 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $227 +$8 +3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $296 −$296 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5,375 −$904 -17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $244 −$244 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $663 −$44 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $44 +$56 +126%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $61 +$9 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $71 −$40 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $138 +$506 +366%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $2,661 +$413 +16%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $10,516 +$3,186 +30%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $225 +$75 +33%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I Jun 09 $32 −$9 -30%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $117 +$10 +9%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $921 −$507 -55%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $215 +$185 +86%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,290 −$91 -7%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 06 $552 −$380 -69%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $34 +$66 +197%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $103 −$77 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 76¢ $69 1h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 74¢ $45 1h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $110 7h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 10h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $134 10h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $96 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $118 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $79 13h
Will De'Von Achane be traded? BUY No 91¢ $35 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 20h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $9 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $12 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $0 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $20 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $33 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $67 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $100 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $184 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,360.59 · official $44,362.90 (match) · 3500 history records