Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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04 0x04e8…e64a crypto 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$3 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%128W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$23
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$31
politics 17% −$37
finance 2% $0
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 2% -6.4%
≤30d 132 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 132 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.5%
all 132 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses128 / 4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)132 / 140
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 92¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 96¢ 92¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 72¢ $20 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 10 $19 +$1 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 11h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 97¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $15 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.32 · official $147.32 (match) · 270 history records