Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04e6…0891 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1
crypto 26% +$2
tech 16% −$1
economics 11% −$7
politics 3% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 6% -9.4%
all 47 +0.4% -9.2% 51% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage226d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 22 $10 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $125 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $120 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 21 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 21 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 21 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Mar 09 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $50 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 02 $5 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $111 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 17 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 17 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 23 $5 $0 -7%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Nov 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31? Nov 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Nov 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 17 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $130 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 3d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 18d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $125 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 21d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $125 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $120 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 23d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $120 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.35 · official $144.35 (match) · 193 history records