Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04e6…3914 sports 207 markets active 4d ago coverage 33d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,447 (-2%) realized −$13,263 · open −$1,184
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%94W / 95L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,931per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$7,522est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$34,416
other 2% −$493
crypto 0% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +24.1% +12.3% 56% 50% -25.4%
≤30d 187 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 48% -14.2%
≤90d 189 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 48% -14.8%
all 189 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 48% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 48% -14.8%
10% -18.0% 43% -22.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 37% -30.4%
20% -33.2% 28% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,966) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,457 vs −$1,796 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$4,191
Realized−$13,263
Unrealized−$1,184
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses94 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$7,522
Open positions18
Markets (closed)189 / 207
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2,931
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 45¢ $1,026 $700 −$327 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 57¢ $460 $569 +$110 (+24%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $400 $567 +$167 (+42%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $593 $545 −$49 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $275 $362 +$88 (+32%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $422 $300 −$122 (-29%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $275 $292 +$16 (+6%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $190 $142 −$48 (-25%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 30¢ $72 $142 +$70 (+97%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ $699 $142 −$557 (-80%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $467 $100 −$367 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $117 $98 −$20 (-17%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 27¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $121 $72 −$50 (-41%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $66 $33 −$33 (-50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $64 $32 −$32 (-50%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,441 −$1,426 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 14 $10,269 −$10,138 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $506 −$505 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $172 +$55 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4,051 −$2,025 -50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $688 +$503 +73%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $2,815 +$862 +31%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $2,155 +$874 +41%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $103 +$46 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $8,404 −$4,932 -59%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $3,943 −$1,721 -44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $230 −$224 -97%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $411 +$4,033 +982%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $758 +$2,464 +325%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $436 +$315 +72%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $35 −$34 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $821 −$812 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $1,971 −$1,948 -99%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 12 $525 +$417 +79%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $3,769 +$1,231 +33%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $3,951 +$492 +12%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $4,965 +$34 +1%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1,672 −$1,117 -67%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $3,271 +$1,969 +60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $652 +$125 +19%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,251 +$1,193 +95%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $3,465 +$279 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $578 +$354 +61%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5,833 −$1,274 -22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $3,048 −$3,039 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $2,447 +$1,278 +52%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $857 +$332 +39%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $163 −$162 -99%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $897 −$888 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $219 +$114 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $8,098 +$4,520 +56%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $3,652 +$1,759 +48%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $797 +$658 +83%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $736 +$292 +40%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $3,966 +$1,849 +47%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $265 +$231 +87%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $9,503 −$9,450 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $10,457 −$9,139 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $5,703 −$4,446 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $10,501 −$9,249 -88%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $4,432 +$3,007 +68%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $2,910 +$1,395 +48%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $768 −$756 -98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $230 −$226 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1,441 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10,269 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $0 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $18 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $482 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $226 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $2,026 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $688 4d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 76¢ $2,815 4d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana 15¢ $153 4d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana $72 4d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 63¢ $1,929 4d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 69¢ $11 4d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 69¢ $7 4d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 69¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 69¢ $11 4d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 69¢ $11 4d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 69¢ $22 4d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 69¢ $40 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $1,644 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 73¢ $209 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $4 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $59 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $59 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $74 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $465 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $54 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 74¢ $5,836 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,051 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,190.95 · official $4,186.06 (match) · 1302 history records