Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04e5…fee7 crypto 41 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (176 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,845 (-19%) realized −$26,845 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%29W / 12L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,437per market
Trades / day176.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$22,313
other 10% −$6,611
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (176 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -9.2% -17.9% 71% 39% -28.4%
≤30d 41 -9.2% -17.9% 71% 39% -28.4%
≤90d 41 -9.2% -17.9% 71% 39% -28.4%
all 41 -9.2% -17.9% 71% 39% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 39% -28.4%
10% -25.7% 12% -35.3%
15% ← realistic here -32.9% 7% -41.5%
20% -39.5% 5% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,029) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$2,877 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,845
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses29 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,437
Trades / day176.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $257 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $13,289 −$13,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $21,113 −$10,261 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $21,241 −$1,547 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $17,151 +$1,819 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $20,329 −$1,424 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $176 −$170 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$57 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7,362 −$7,265 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6,438 +$904 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $2,030 +$330 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$114 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $918 +$287 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $2,022 +$305 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $306 +$84 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $307 +$133 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $1,013 +$97 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $305 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $1,309 +$81 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $1,013 +$138 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $1,006 +$43 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1,013 +$48 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $1,008 +$36 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1,022 +$171 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $1,007 +$73 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $1,336 +$78 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $1,010 +$121 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $2,112 −$100 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $308 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $2,022 +$224 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $309 +$64 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $4,312 +$118 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $612 +$102 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $2,029 +$84 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $2,318 −$204 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $2,001 +$19 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $257 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1,428 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $898 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1,044 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1,224 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1,122 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $372 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $863 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1,000 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1,243 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1,413 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $830 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $692 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1,159 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1,537 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2,450 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $208 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1,801 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1,816 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1,420 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1,273 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1,421 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1,480 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $767 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1,621 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2,132 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7,695 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1,216 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1,258 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $830 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records