Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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04 0x04e3…69d1 crypto 448 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,367 (-8%) realized −$8,926 · open +$559
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%171W / 261L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$504est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6,449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$422
7 days+$758
14 days+$519
30 days−$1,247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1,852
sports 38% −$3,157
other 3% −$504
world 3% −$262
finance 1% +$602
politics 0% +$146
tech 0% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +11.7% +1.1% 46% 46% -1.2%
≤30d 108 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 39% -15.8%
≤90d 426 -7.2% -16.0% 39% 38% -15.4%
all 432 -6.7% -15.5% 40% 39% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 39% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 37% -22.9%
15% -31.0% 35% -30.4%
20% -37.8% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$194 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$6,449
Realized−$8,926
Unrealized+$559
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses171 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$504
Open positions16
Markets (closed)432 / 448
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 64¢ 100¢ $978 $1,523 +$545 (+56%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $485 $490 +$4 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $476 $489 +$13 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $420 $478 +$58 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $455 $472 +$17 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 93¢ 93¢ $464 $463 −$1 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 79¢ 90¢ $395 $452 +$58 (+15%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $455 $448 −$8 (-2%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 77¢ 90¢ $385 $447 +$62 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 85¢ $452 $425 −$26 (-6%)
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $280 $289 +$9 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $211 $225 +$14 (+7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 45¢ $178 $109 −$68 (-38%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $101 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Yes 31¢ 5¢ $142 $22 −$120 (-85%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $97 +$174 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$198 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $209 +$379 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$189 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $208 +$260 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$158 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$237 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$145 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$228 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$125 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $158 +$454 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$212 +202%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$150 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$327 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$176 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $36 +$14 +39%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $245 −$245 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $924 −$924 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $425 +$75 +18%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,260 +$740 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $295 +$205 +70%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $275 +$225 +82%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $50 +$10 +19%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $212 −$212 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 04 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $464 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $97 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $95 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $206 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $53 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $209 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,449.12 · official $6,448.89 (match) · 3500 history records