Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x04dc…2387 other 748 markets active 7h ago coverage 133d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,136 (+4%) realized +$6,904 · open −$768
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%322W / 246L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$20,929now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$1,713
other 21% +$5,111
politics 12% +$3,331
tech 9% +$3,692
economics 8% +$640
culture 4% −$1,970
world 3% +$1,588
crypto 0% +$178
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -45.6% -50.8% 21% 11% -43.7%
≤30d 263 -24.2% -31.4% 32% 19% -30.5%
≤90d 462 +8.8% -1.6% 51% 31% -9.0%
all 568 +29.5% +17.2% 57% 36% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 36% +1.2%
10% ← realistic here +6.0% 29% -8.5%
15% -4.3% 23% -17.3%
20% -13.7% 17% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$95 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$20,929
Realized+$6,904
Unrealized−$768
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses322 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions191
Markets (closed)568 / 748
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$200
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 191 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? No 65¢ 94¢ $1,210 $1,768 +$558 (+46%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? No 66¢ 86¢ $1,339 $1,732 +$393 (+29%)
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? No 94¢ 68¢ $2,133 $1,550 −$583 (-27%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 87¢ 60¢ $1,927 $1,324 −$603 (-31%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 88¢ $260 $1,035 +$775 (+298%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 41¢ 98¢ $339 $806 +$468 (+138%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 No 78¢ 92¢ $557 $656 +$99 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 57¢ 80¢ $456 $636 +$180 (+39%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? No 86¢ 97¢ $545 $617 +$73 (+13%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 87¢ 95¢ $551 $601 +$51 (+9%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $498 $531 +$33 (+7%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 67¢ 60¢ $448 $402 −$46 (-10%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? No 90¢ 99¢ $350 $386 +$36 (+10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $487 $380 −$107 (-22%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? No 66¢ 93¢ $257 $362 +$105 (+41%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $343 $352 +$9 (+3%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 71¢ 63¢ $383 $340 −$43 (-11%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 64¢ 99¢ $211 $328 +$117 (+56%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 83¢ 91¢ $290 $318 +$28 (+10%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $480 $305 −$175 (-36%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 76¢ 95¢ $244 $303 +$59 (+24%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 57¢ 75¢ $169 $221 +$52 (+31%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? Yes 51¢ 57¢ $187 $209 +$22 (+12%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 23¢ 38¢ $119 $191 +$73 (+61%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $174 $190 +$16 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? Jun 17 $3 +$37 +1248%
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US lose jobs in January? Jun 17 $1 +$554 +101161%
Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lionel Messi attend Super Bowl LX? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima Jun 17 $461 +$104 +23%
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +52%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 16 $162 +$35 +22%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in t Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be 1 NYT banner headline by February 28? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Drake feature Playboi Carti on ICEMAN? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Drake feature J. Cole on ICEMAN? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -92%
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? Jun 16 $64 −$20 -32%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Drake feature Yebba on ICEMAN? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February? Jun 16 $568 +$203 +36%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 20 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will North West release an album by December 31? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "Beast" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Drake feature Morgan Wallen on ICEMAN? Jun 16 $54 −$54 -99%
Will André Carson be the Democratic nominee for IN-07? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil’s Q4 2025 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.4%? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top glob Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 16 $76 −$46 -60%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? Jun 16 $99 −$7 -7%
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -93%
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" score at least 73 on the Rotten Tom Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $122 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 61¢ $495 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 40¢ $88 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 20h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 10¢ $9 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 30h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 87¢ $466 30h
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 64¢ $292 36h
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2 BUY Yes 26¢ $2 44h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 10¢ $2 44h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $4 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 72¢ $63 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY No 87¢ $116 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 67¢ $90 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 67¢ $90 2d
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,929.46 · official $20,926.08 (match) · 3500 history records