Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04d9…093e crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate81%112W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$13
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 47% -10.5%
≤30d 138 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 35% -12.3%
≤90d 138 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 35% -12.3%
all 138 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 35% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 35% -12.3%
10% -20.6% 12% -20.7%
15% -28.3% 2% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses112 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage16d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$22 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$21 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$7 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $46 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $45 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$5 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL No 54¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL No 43¢ $12 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 81¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 41¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 12¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records