Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x04d8…7eaa crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$6
crypto 7% +$1
sports 4% −$7
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 29 -4.8% -13.9% 59% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage536d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 09 $76 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Feb 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Nov 04 $20 $0 +2%
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? Oct 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +2%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in February? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference? Mar 04 $4,044 −$4 -0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 05 $21 $0 +0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jan 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Jan 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross less than $16m? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Jan 08 $1 $0 -36%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 07 $40 −$7 -17%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 06 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $76 35d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? BUY No 100¢ $16 147d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $16 212d
Will Solana reach $250 in October? BUY No 98¢ $20 242d
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 270d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $25 365d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in May? BUY No 98¢ $25 394d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $24 406d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $24 412d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $17 424d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 429d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 429d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 436d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 436d
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $19 458d
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 100¢ $23 463d
Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 100¢ $4,040 478d
Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 100¢ $4,044 478d
Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 485d
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? BUY No 100¢ $23 488d
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $12 493d
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $12 502d
Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election? SELL No 100¢ $21 505d
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 512d
Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election? BUY No 100¢ $21 514d
Everton wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $12 520d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.10 · official $72.10 (match) · 62 history records