Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x04d7…b035 other 88 markets active 2d ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$51,165 (+39%) realized +$51,167 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate69%60W / 27L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,504per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$1,606
14 days−$1,844
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$36,746
world 9% +$884
sports 5% −$786
politics 2% +$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.5% -18.2% 78% 22% -41.3%
≤30d 29 -17.1% -25.0% 48% 24% -10.5%
≤90d 87 +22.0% +10.4% 69% 53% +16.0%
all 87 +22.0% +10.4% 69% 53% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 53% +16.0%
10% -0.1% 40% +4.9%
15% ← realistic here -9.8% 34% -5.2%
20% -18.6% 28% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,623) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
26.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$746 vs −$277 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.99 per $1 lost it wins $5.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$51,167
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses60 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$1,504
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $213 $212 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $271 +$9 +4%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $247 +$4 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $2,204 −$2,174 -99%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $229 +$3 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $550 +$230 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $657 +$333 +51%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $369 +$25 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $254 +$246 +97%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $299 −$299 -100%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Frederik Andersen win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 03 $13 −$11 -85%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $1,253 +$22 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $407 −$153 -38%
Will Jack Eichel win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $1,787 +$2,056 +115%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $2,422 +$854 +35%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $2,819 −$1,207 -43%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $530 +$1,049 +198%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $27 +$2 +9%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $56 +$51 +91%
Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $317 −$317 -100%
Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $67 −$19 -28%
Will Croatia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $497 −$327 -66%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6,185 −$494 -8%
Will Latvia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $28 −$22 -78%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4,159 +$567 +14%
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3,568 +$770 +22%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $961 +$205 +21%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,535 +$319 +21%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $387 +$260 +67%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,559 +$284 +18%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5,997 +$7,428 +124%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3,735 +$790 +21%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,648 +$1,024 +62%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4,209 +$1,841 +44%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3,318 −$279 -8%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2,749 +$165 +6%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,365 −$219 -16%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $75 +$350 +464%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3,131 −$305 -10%
Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $223 +$43 +19%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $26,400 +$10,078 +38%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $85 −$61 -71%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $711 −$292 -41%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $11,976 +$1,100 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $41 39h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $62 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $8 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $100 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $49 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $36 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $13 3d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $251 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $2,204 3d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $232 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 56¢ $280 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $355 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $495 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $657 4d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $385 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $31 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $7 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $24 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $17 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $73 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 57¢ $394 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.50 · official $211.50 (match) · 3500 history records