Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

04 0x04d5…97dd other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$73 (-7%) realized −$64 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$18

7 days+$14

14 days−$82

30 days−$82

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-20.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+30.2%	+17.8%	75%	75%	+3.3%
≤30d	12	-13.8%	-22.1%	58%	58%	-17.4%
≤90d	13	-11.6%	-20.0%	62%	62%	-17.4%
all	13	-11.6%	-20.0%	62%	62%	-17.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.0%	62%	-17.4%
10%	-27.7%	46%	-25.3%
15%	-34.7%	31%	-32.5%
20%	-41.1%	0%	-39.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late -7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$54 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.69 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized−$64

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions5

Markets (closed)13 / 18

History coverage36d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	68¢	$32	$26	−$6 (-18%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$8	−$3 (-27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	19¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$22	+$11	+49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$15	+$7	+49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	+$4	+38%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$52	−$8	-15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$7	−$7	-98%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini	Jun 11	$252	−$250	-99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz	Jun 11	$310	+$85	+27%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe	Jun 11	$121	+$48	+40%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-100%
Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: Draw at halftime?	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 11	$50	+$15	+31%
Will England win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 11	$100	+$16	+16%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	May 20	$1	$0	+15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$33	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$22	20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$15	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$10	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	17¢	$7	9d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini	BUY Andrea Collarini	67¢	$252	12d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz	SELL Taylor Fritz	99¢	$252	12d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	55¢	$142	12d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz	SELL Taylor Fritz	59¢	$143	12d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	68¢	$169	12d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe	SELL Kamil Majchrzak	100¢	$169	12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$16	12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$18	12d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe	BUY Kamil Majchrzak	71¢	$121	12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	13d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	13d
Will England win on 2026-06-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	14d
Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	66¢	$2	34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	BUY Cavaliers	84¢	$1	34d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	83¢	$1	36d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 47 history records