Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04d5…188f other 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,556 (-19%) realized −$1,221 · open −$335
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$975
7 days−$883
14 days−$1,651
30 days−$1,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$484
other 18% −$395
sports 14% −$978
culture 10% −$8
economics 8% +$140
world 5% +$62
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -29.8% -36.5% 44% 39% -49.6%
≤30d 26 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 42% -46.6%
≤90d 78 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 32% -29.9%
all 83 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 31% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 31% -29.6%
10% -24.3% 25% -36.4%
15% -31.6% 17% -42.5%
20% -38.3% 11% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$47 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$1,555
Realized−$1,221
Unrealized−$335
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 43
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions65
Markets (closed)83 / 149
History coverage120d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $598 $264 −$334 (-56%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $102 $135 +$33 (+32%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 34¢ 82¢ $45 $107 +$63 (+140%)
Will the Republican Party win the MS-01 House seat? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $93 $99 +$7 (+7%)
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? No 78¢ 78¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $171 $76 −$95 (-56%)
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 81¢ 100¢ $49 $60 +$11 (+23%)
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 89¢ 100¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+13%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 53¢ 30¢ $71 $41 −$30 (-42%)
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026? Yes 60¢ 69¢ $32 $38 +$5 (+16%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 62¢ 71¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+14%)
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 12¢ 30¢ $13 $32 +$19 (+140%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 69¢ 56¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-19%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $28 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? No 78¢ 84¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 58¢ 76¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+31%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 50¢ 64¢ $18 $22 +$5 (+28%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 39¢ 30¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +49%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$4 +27%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $974 −$974 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $29 −$9 -32%
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in April? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Jun 11 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 11 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Ryan Crosswell be the Democratic nominee for PA-07? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $64 +$39 +61%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $213 +$87 +41%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima Jun 10 $491 +$67 +14%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 08 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Jun 05 $27 +$8 +29%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $755 −$755 -100%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 03 $39 −$19 -48%
Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 02 $74 +$8 +10%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 02 $364 +$241 +66%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 23 $29 +$28 +98%
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $22 +$18 +82%
New pandemic in 2026? May 17 $52 +$4 +8%
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? May 14 $16 +$7 +41%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 06 $13 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 5? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? May 05 $753 −$9 -1%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -47%
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? May 04 $5 $0 -2%
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding? May 04 $2 $0 +9%
Will no one dissent the April Fed decision? May 01 $43 +$3 +8%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 28 $1 $0 +25%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 28 $97 $0 +0%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 24 $1 +$4 +257%
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 15 $1 $0 -22%
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary electio Apr 07 $34 +$20 +59%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Apr 06 $5 +$6 +111%
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? Apr 06 $48 −$7 -14%
Will André Carson be the Democratic nominee for IN-07? Apr 06 $82 +$14 +17%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 06 $53 +$23 +43%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Apr 06 $33 +$11 +34%
Will three people dissent the March Fed decision? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be t BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5m
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in June? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primar BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primar BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primar BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 70¢ $4 1h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 74¢ $8 1h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 74¢ $8 1h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc BUY No 59¢ $6 2h
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Ch BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $8 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY No 79¢ $8 4h
Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit in June? BUY No 93¢ $6 4h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 74¢ $7 4h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 74¢ $7 4h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 74¢ $7 4h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 74¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,554.68 · official $1,553.46 (match) · 1072 history records