Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04d5…90f5 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$89 (+1%) realized +$90 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 47% $0
crypto 25% +$1
politics 17% $0
finance 7% −$1
sports 3% +$90
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 13 +5.7% -4.4% 38% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 8% -8.4%
10% -13.5% 8% -17.1%
15% -21.9% 8% -25.1%
20% -29.5% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$1 · ×15.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.21 per $1 lost it wins $25.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage173d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $570 $569 −$1 (-0%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $584 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 19 $553 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 09 $652 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 04 $626 $0 -0%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 28 $119 +$93 +79%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 22 $525 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $74 −$4 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 02 $100 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $2,471 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $599 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $570 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $548 81d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $553 89d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $171 89d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 89d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $239 89d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 89d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $72 89d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $652 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $652 99d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $626 104d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $144 105d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $50 105d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $166 105d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $57 105d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $58 105d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $151 105d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 56¢ $119 110d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $525 114d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $525 114d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $71 132d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $74 155d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $247 166d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $247 166d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $247 166d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $200 166d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $47 166d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $248 167d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $248 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.78 · official $673.78 (match) · 162 history records