Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04d3…f194
other · 110 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$15 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses100 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)106 / 110
History coverage214d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US strike on Syria by December 19? No 99¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? May 17 $2 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference? May 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 29 $2 $0 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 01 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and Mar 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 10 $1 $0 +30%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Feb 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podca Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Februar Feb 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Feb 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will BAILE INOLVIDABLE be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? Feb 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 04 $4 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? Feb 02 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 28% −$2
crypto 23% +$14
tech 18% +$2
economics 10% −$1
world 8% +$1
culture 7% +$1
politics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $2 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $2 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 16d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $2 24d
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 27d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 31d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 96¢ $2 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 98¢ $2 38d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 42d
Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 45d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $2 47d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 50d
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 52d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $2 54d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $2 55d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 57d
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 57d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $2 58d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 61d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 63d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $2 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 67d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 97¢ $2 67d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 71d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 72d
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 9 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤90d 31 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 3% -7.1%
all 106 +3.9% -6.0% 94% 12% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 12% -4.7%
10% -15.0% 8% -13.8%
15% -23.2% 6% -22.1%
20% -30.7% 6% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.51 · official $10.51 (match) · 249 history records