Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

04 0x04d2…a9ba other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$63 (-16%) realized −$63 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$99per market

Trades / day8.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-18.4%	-26.2%	33%	33%	-27.0%
≤30d	3	-18.4%	-26.2%	33%	33%	-27.0%
≤90d	3	-18.4%	-26.2%	33%	33%	-27.0%
all	3	-18.4%	-26.2%	33%	33%	-27.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.2%	33%	-27.0%
10%	-33.2%	33%	-34.0%
15%	-39.7%	33%	-40.4%
20%	-45.6%	0%	-46.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$57 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.38 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized−$63

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$99

Trades / day8.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	47¢	48¢	$29	$29	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$168	−$40	-24%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$99	−$74	-75%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$100	+$43	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$29	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$29	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	86¢	$25	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$25	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$99	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	45¢	$99	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$143	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	86¢	$143	24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$100	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.85 · official $28.85 (match) · 9 history records