Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04cf…5224 finance 26 markets active 7h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,950 (+1%) realized +$1,458 · open +$492
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$6,932per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$14
14 days+$10
30 days+$1,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 65% +$1,748
crypto 27% +$646
other 7% +$446
politics 1% −$999
tech 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 83% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 10 +1.6% -8.0% 90% 0% -8.1%
all 17 -4.5% -13.6% 82% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 0% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 0% -17.4%
15% -29.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -36.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$10,046) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$335 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$43,192
Realized+$1,458
Unrealized+$492
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)17 / 26
History coverage242d
Avg bet$6,932
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $18,400 $18,660 +$260 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $10,600 $10,667 +$67 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $6,200 $6,353 +$153 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,300 $2,301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,017 +$17 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,012 +$12 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 95¢ 86¢ $300 $271 −$29 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 17 $1,001 +$7 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 11 $300 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $20,022 +$292 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $29,852 +$543 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $20,013 +$312 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $9,996 +$147 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $9,983 +$142 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $9,996 +$148 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $19,993 +$267 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 01 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Feb 28 $999 +$14 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 26 $1,595 +$13 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 26 $1,531 +$55 +4%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 27 $10,046 +$415 +4%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Oct 23 $72 −$2 -3%
Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31? Oct 23 $999 −$999 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? BUY No 98¢ $200 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? BUY No 98¢ $200 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2,002 21h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $200 21h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 43h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 96¢ $200 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY No 97¢ $100 4d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY No 97¢ $200 4d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY No 96¢ $100 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 99¢ $200 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10,005 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 98¢ $200 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 98¢ $200 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL No 97¢ $296 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 98¢ $300 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 8d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3,002 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 98¢ $200 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 98¢ $200 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 98¢ $200 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,192.07 · official $43,192.07 (match) · 173 history records