Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04ce…278e
sports · 20 markets active 0h ago
6.0score
+$69 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$70 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$79
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage78d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 4 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$109
14 days+$109
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Team Yandex 42¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs LGD Gaming 15¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Spirit 50¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage PARIVISION 30¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 29¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $51 +$53 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $25 +$39 +152%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$105 +206%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $153 +$17 +11%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 +$44 +86%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Mar 28 $50 +$64 +128%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 27 $50 +$97 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$58
other 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 4m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 11m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $20 42m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 20h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 15¢ $51 5d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 48¢ $51 5d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 29¢ $51 5d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 39¢ $25 6d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $51 6d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 50¢ $51 16d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 17¢ $10 17d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 36¢ $51 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $51 17d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Tundra Esports $27 17d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 12¢ $51 17d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Spirit 87¢ $73 17d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Spirit 86¢ $69 17d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 58¢ $51 17d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $51 17d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo BUY Team Yandex 54¢ $50 75d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo BUY Team Yandex 34¢ $50 75d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof BUY Xtreme Gaming 44¢ $50 75d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff SELL Xtreme Gaming 100¢ $114 76d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff BUY Xtreme Gaming 44¢ $50 76d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof SELL Xtreme Gaming 100¢ $147 77d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof BUY Xtreme Gaming 34¢ $50 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +65.3% +49.5% 62% 62% +26.6%
≤30d 12 +34.9% +22.1% 58% 58% -0.3%
≤90d 16 +33.8% +21.1% 56% 56% -1.9%
all 16 +33.8% +21.1% 56% 56% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.1% 56% -1.9%
10% +9.5% 50% -11.3%
15% -1.1% 50% -19.9%
20% -10.8% 50% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.90 · official $78.90 (match) · 37 history records