Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04cd…2139 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+3%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate93%40W / 3L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$70
other 9% +$39
politics 8% +$4
tech 4% +$3
world 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.9% +25.7% 100% 33% +4.3%
≤30d 6 +19.6% +8.2% 100% 17% -3.3%
≤90d 15 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 7% -7.0%
all 43 +6.1% -4.0% 93% 12% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 12% -6.7%
10% -13.2% 7% -15.7%
15% -21.6% 7% -23.8%
20% -29.3% 2% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×13.27 per $1 lost it wins $13.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses40 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage530d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $136 +$3 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 +$32 +113%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 16? May 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 11? May 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 28? May 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 13? Apr 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 24? Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 14? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 3? Mar 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 02 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Mar 02 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 14? Mar 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 10? Feb 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 23? Feb 10 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 10? Jan 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5? Jan 10 $93 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 05 $90 +$3 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November? Dec 14 $81 +$9 +12%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Nov 19 $74 +$7 +10%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 20 $71 +$3 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Sep 21 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 02 $48 +$20 +41%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 19 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on June 24? Jun 26 $33 +$13 +38%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 23 $28 +$6 +21%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 10 $37 −$9 -25%
Will Ethereum hit $3,000.00 again by March 31? Apr 23 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 15 $152 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 21 $150 +$2 +1%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 19 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $148 $0 +0%
Election certified on January 6? Jan 07 $145 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $141 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $136 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $72 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 34d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $102 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 66d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 79d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $100 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 106d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $99 106d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $99 106d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 95¢ $99 106d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 93¢ $98 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 122d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $81 126d
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 23? BUY No 99¢ $95 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $65 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5? BUY No 98¢ $93 162d
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL No 99¢ $65 162d
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $65 162d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $90 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records