Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04c7…5573 sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$298 (+19%) realized +$309 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 41L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$231
crypto 27% +$34
other 11% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 42% +7.8%
≤30d 73 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 42% +7.8%
≤90d 73 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 42% +7.8%
all 73 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 42% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 42% +7.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 42% -2.5%
15% -24.7% 42% -11.9%
20% -32.0% 41% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$309
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions7
Markets (closed)73 / 80
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $14 $5 −$8 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $53 +$47 +89%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $27 −$26 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $43 +$57 +134%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $29 +$21 +75%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$29 +152%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$23 -92%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$25 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$80 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $22 −$12 -53%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $22 +$28 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $24 +$26 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $32 +$18 +57%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 +$24 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$15 +276%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 $0 -6%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3. Jun 17 $4 +$9 +258%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$142 +270%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$7 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$76 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 6m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 72¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $66 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $76 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $100 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $12 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $22 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $27 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 95¢ $47 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $53 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $9 10h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $19 10h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 11h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 11h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $12 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $23 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $101 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.85 · official $311.85 (match) · 164 history records