Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04c6…5d77 other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$21
politics 31% −$19
sports 8% +$56
tech 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 76 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 111 +0.3% -9.3% 14% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage131d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $320 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $311 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $357 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $312 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $691 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $316 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,375 −$2 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $329 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $341 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $339 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,213 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $363 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $301 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $324 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 5h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 18h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 21h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 29h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 11d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 20d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 21d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $363 25d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $364 25d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $329 27d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $329 27d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $320 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $320 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $354 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $354 29d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $334 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 356 history records