Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04c5…c2c8 weather 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,059 (-27%) realized −$1,064 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%50W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$17
14 days−$39
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$233
weather 25% −$357
crypto 18% +$269
politics 16% −$565
sports 5% −$178
world 2% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +28.1% +15.9% 81% 71% -8.4%
≤30d 79 -5.4% -14.4% 58% 51% -21.8%
≤90d 91 -8.6% -17.3% 55% 48% -36.2%
all 91 -8.6% -17.3% 55% 48% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 48% -36.2%
10% -25.3% 34% -42.3%
15% -32.5% 29% -47.9%
20% -39.1% 20% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$42 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized−$1,064
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses50 / 41
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage601d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $450 $453 +$3 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -13%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $203 −$178 -88%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 23 $23 −$7 -28%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $375 +$36 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$8 +122%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $80 +$12 +14%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 +$10 +238%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $12 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$3 -16%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $14 −$11 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $452 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $375 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.29 · official $496.29 (match) · 285 history records