Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04c3…9a7c world 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$362 (+3%) realized +$330 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate71%293W / 118L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$289
14 days+$121
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$1,112
other 5% −$120
finance 4% +$2
politics 2% −$17
tech 2% −$153
sports 1% +$8
economics 1% +$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.4% -3.8% 67% 33% -0.4%
≤30d 19 +5.6% -4.5% 58% 32% -6.6%
≤90d 132 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 29% -3.0%
all 411 -1.9% -11.2% 71% 31% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 31% -3.8%
10% -19.7% 13% -13.0%
15% -27.5% 5% -21.4%
20% -34.6% 3% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized+$330
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses293 / 118
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)411 / 416
History coverage159d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 48¢ 72¢ $182 $270 +$88 (+49%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $165 $159 −$6 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 26¢ $195 $151 −$44 (-23%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $354 +$125 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $903 +$17 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $306 +$66 +22%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $30 −$3 -9%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$32 -79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $450 +$14 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $219 −$9 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $264 +$91 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,086 −$168 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $939 −$77 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $23 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $310 +$127 +41%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 13 $9 $0 +6%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 13 $50 +$4 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $500 +$40 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $20 −$4 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $28 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 10 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $45 −$3 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $40 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $198 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $43 +$3 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 08 $99 +$3 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 08 $80 +$4 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 08 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 08 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 08 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 08 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 07 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by M May 06 $32 −$32 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $45 +$15 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 05 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 05 $5 $0 -8%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $30 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $27 +$5 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 04 $13 −$1 -5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $130 +$33 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $20 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 01 $30 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $50 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $70 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $50 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $236 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $95 22h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $50 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $202 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $170 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $50 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $51 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $50 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $30 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $150 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $100 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $525 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $340 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $98 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $246 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 2d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $19 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $90 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 90¢ $30 3d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 SELL No 65¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.07 · official $594.07 (match) · 1494 history records