Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04bd…39a0
sports · 341 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$157,905 +31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22,318 · open −$5,763
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41,193
Realized−$22,318
Unrealized−$5,763
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses181 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$6,082
Open positions10
Markets (closed)450 / 341
History coverage46d
Avg bet$1,481
Trades / day70.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 450 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60,940
7 days−$61,442
14 days−$57,995
30 days−$46,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs Vivo Keyd Stars 55¢ 100¢ $1,920 $3,518 +$1,598 (+83%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner T1 46¢ 100¢ $1,278 $2,764 +$1,486 (+116%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 87¢ $2,738 $2,761 +$22 (+1%)
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner LOUD 91¢ 100¢ $2,239 $2,456 +$217 (+10%)
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) LOS 53¢ 100¢ $726 $1,371 +$645 (+89%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Top Esports 47¢ 100¢ $627 $1,334 +$707 (+113%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming 98¢ 100¢ $1,266 $1,287 +$21 (+2%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs LYON 39¢ 100¢ $487 $1,239 +$751 (+154%)
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner LOS 63¢ 100¢ $692 $1,096 +$404 (+58%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner GIANTX 51¢ 100¢ $553 $1,086 +$533 (+96%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Red Force 16¢ 100¢ $169 $1,058 +$889 (+525%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 90¢ 98¢ $962 $1,050 +$88 (+9%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 89¢ 100¢ $924 $1,038 +$114 (+12%)
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner FURIA Esports 50¢ 100¢ $500 $1,000 +$500 (+100%)
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Team WE 50¢ 100¢ $500 $1,000 +$500 (+100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 71¢ 100¢ $710 $1,000 +$290 (+41%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 54¢ 100¢ $540 $1,000 +$460 (+85%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner FlyQuest 54¢ 100¢ $540 $1,000 +$460 (+85%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 42¢ 66¢ $631 $999 +$368 (+58%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Weibo Gaming 90¢ 100¢ $880 $978 +$98 (+11%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In LGD Gaming 45¢ 100¢ $395 $878 +$483 (+122%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs LOS 52¢ 100¢ $421 $809 +$388 (+92%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 62¢ 34¢ $1,450 $783 −$667 (-46%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner T1 48¢ 100¢ $375 $776 +$401 (+107%)
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 4 Winner KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 65¢ 100¢ $482 $745 +$263 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual Jun 14 $4 +$6 +150%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $667 −$667 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO1) - Circuito Desafian Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $326 −$326 -100%
LoL: Verdant vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,162 −$1,162 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 14 $628 −$628 -100%
LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $674 −$674 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 14 $2,691 −$2,691 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 14 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 14 $206 −$204 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $229 −$229 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 14 $998 −$998 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 14 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $348 −$348 -100%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-08? Jun 14 $224 −$224 -100%
Game Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $604 −$604 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $1,286 −$1,286 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $430 −$430 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $583 −$583 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $313 −$313 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $276 −$249 -90%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $620 −$620 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1,636 −$1,636 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $1,579 −$1,579 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: LOS vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $977 −$977 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 14 $711 −$711 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,927 −$1,927 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,921 −$2,921 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BIG - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $234 −$234 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $843 −$843 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,588 −$1,588 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $656 −$656 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prim Jun 14 $660 −$660 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $595 −$595 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $232 −$232 -100%
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$40,819
politics 1% +$22
other 0% +$530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $5 31m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $3,086 42m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $42 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $11 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $5 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $10 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $54 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $2 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $108 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $291 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $102 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $1,060 47m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 48¢ $975 50m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $116 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $239 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $554 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $34 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $326 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $66 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $42 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $513 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 61¢ $92 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 61¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -68.9% -71.8% 16% 11% -46.9%
≤30d 330 -32.9% -39.3% 36% 27% -19.4%
≤90d 450 -20.5% -28.0% 40% 30% -13.2%
all 450 -20.5% -28.0% 40% 30% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 30% -13.2%
10% -34.9% 26% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -41.2% 24% -29.1%
20% -47.0% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,192.89 · official $41,192.89 (match) · 3500 history records