Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04bb…59e2 world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2
other 25% $0
sports 15% −$10
politics 11% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.1% -10.6% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 31 +10.0% -0.5% 45% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 70 +33.2% +20.5% 43% 4% -9.5%
all 71 +31.3% +18.8% 42% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.8% 4% -9.9%
10% +7.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -2.9% 3% -26.4%
20% -12.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage487d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $4 $0 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $76 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $81 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $118 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $15 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $44 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $7 $0 -4%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $154 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $108 −$1 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $44 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $82 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $40 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $39 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $4 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $11 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $25 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $2 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $34 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $15 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $13 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $20 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $20 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $40 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.14 · official $36.63 · 289 history records