Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04b6…94c8
crypto · 30 markets active 16h ago
0.0score
−$1,437 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,437 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,608
Realized−$1,437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 30
Avg bet$2,341
Trades / day3467.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,436
7 days−$1,436
14 days−$1,436
30 days−$1,436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $1,869 $1,888 +$19 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $713 $720 +$7 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $282 $0 −$282 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $237 $0 −$237 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $657 $0 −$657 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $474 $0 −$474 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $249 $0 −$249 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $393 $0 −$393 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $274 $0 −$274 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$289 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $157 $0 −$157 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $344 $0 −$344 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1,869 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $713 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $282 −$282 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET Jun 12 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET Jun 12 $237 −$237 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $657 −$657 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12AM ET Jun 12 $474 −$474 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $274 −$274 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $344 −$344 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $3,083 −$81 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $232 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $520 +$59 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $6,539 +$27 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2,897 −$1,066 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2,460 +$651 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $4,427 +$185 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1,550 +$46 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2,176 +$38 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1,313 +$48 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1,468 −$13 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1,954 −$233 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2,778 −$149 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $790 −$91 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $1,122 −$16 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $2,509 +$224 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $3,092 −$140 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2,413 −$25 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$3,314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $88 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $97 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -44.6% -49.8% 31% 8% -11.2%
≤30d 62 -44.6% -49.8% 31% 8% -11.2%
≤90d 62 -44.6% -49.8% 31% 8% -11.2%
all 62 -44.6% -49.8% 31% 8% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3467.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.8% 8% -11.2%
10% -54.6% 5% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -59.0% 2% -27.5%
20% -63.0% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,608.37 · official $2,608.37 (match) · 3500 history records