Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04b6…83e2 crypto 141 markets active 3d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-9%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%60W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$15
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$8
other 19% −$31
sports 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -62.7% -66.2% 22% 22% -44.3%
≤30d 20 -43.5% -48.9% 35% 35% -37.6%
≤90d 141 -17.7% -25.5% 43% 32% -19.5%
all 141 -17.7% -25.5% 43% 32% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 32% -19.5%
10% -32.7% 28% -27.2%
15% -39.2% 21% -34.2%
20% -45.1% 16% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses60 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage48d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 10 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 10 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 10 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 08 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 08 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 08 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 08 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 08 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 08 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 08 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 08 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 08 $3 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 7d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records