Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04b3…1b7e
weather · 1022 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$951 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$683 · open +$243
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,908
Realized+$683
Unrealized+$243
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses566 / 363
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions146
Markets (closed)929 / 1022
History coverage23d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day119.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 146 History 929 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$154
14 days+$255
30 days+$683
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 11¢ 89¢ $20 $165 +$145 (+725%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 41¢ 96¢ $20 $47 +$27 (+136%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 62¢ $15 $33 +$18 (+118%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 26¢ 51¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+96%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 16¢ 55¢ $8 $28 +$20 (+244%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 17¢ 99¢ $4 $26 +$21 (+482%)
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? Yes 12¢ 84¢ $4 $25 +$22 (+608%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 56¢ 68¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? No 86¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 83¢ 93¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 87¢ 95¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? No 66¢ 72¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 83¢ 90¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 66¢ 72¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 85¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 84¢ 90¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? No 67¢ 70¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 65¢ 68¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 80¢ 83¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 99¢ $18 $21 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 86¢ 88¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 32¢ 64¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $16 +$6 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$27 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$19 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 12 $15 +$12 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$12 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +20%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -7%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $10 +$11 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$38 +247%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$14 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 66% +$645
world 12% +$14
other 8% +$99
sports 6% −$45
politics 5% +$209
tech 3% −$5
culture 1% −$12
economics 0% −$7
finance 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $20 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $20 22m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $20 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $22 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $20 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $3 1h
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 1h
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $3 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 52% -5.4%
≤30d 929 +5.6% -4.5% 61% 54% -3.6%
≤90d 929 +5.6% -4.5% 61% 54% -3.6%
all 929 +5.6% -4.5% 61% 54% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover119.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 54% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 33% -12.8%
15% -22.0% 21% -21.3%
20% -29.6% 14% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,908.25 · official $1,906.39 (match) · 3500 history records