Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
04 0x04b2…14c2 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+4%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$110
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$58
crypto 16% −$71
other 3% +$12
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +13.0% +2.2% 39% 39% -1.7%
≤30d 55 +3.5% -6.3% 47% 44% -6.7%
≤90d 55 +3.5% -6.3% 47% 44% -6.7%
all 64 -5.1% -14.2% 44% 38% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 38% -9.2%
10% -22.4% 34% -17.9%
15% -29.9% 33% -25.8%
20% -36.8% 27% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 36
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage99d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $109 −$31 -29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$49 +216%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $147 +$57 +39%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $94 −$4 -5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$12 -47%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $134 −$39 -29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $136 −$7 -5%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $118 −$36 -31%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $91 −$89 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $19 −$10 -49%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $199 +$90 +45%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $16 +$14 +92%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $18 +$9 +50%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $20 +$24 +116%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $121 +$71 +59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$12 -71%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $16 −$13 -83%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$81 +980%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $59 −$41 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $9 +$2 +21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $99 +$30 +30%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $56 +$43 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $26 +$27 +105%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$7 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $37 −$1 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $9 +$8 +88%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $22 +$11 +48%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $13 +$9 +71%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 80¢ $22 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 57¢ $16 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 43¢ $16 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 57¢ $22 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 40¢ $22 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 67¢ $38 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 34¢ $17 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $33 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $204 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $147 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 11¢ $5 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 89¢ $151 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $90 18h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $5 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 54¢ $95 19h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 75¢ $134 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $8 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $12 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 62¢ $129 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 64¢ $136 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $13 25h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $29 26h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 42¢ $79 26h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $89 32h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $91 41h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 17¢ $10 42h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 32¢ $19 42h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 87¢ $289 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records