Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x04b0…000d crypto 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$39,585 (+81%) realized +$39,587 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%174W / 152L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$134
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$39,692
crypto 33% +$2,411
tech 7% −$836
economics 5% +$1,065
politics 5% −$604
world 5% −$1,395
sports 5% −$1,208
finance 2% +$290
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +41.6% +28.2% 100% 67% +28.0%
≤30d 3 +41.6% +28.2% 100% 67% +28.0%
≤90d 92 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 45% -36.1%
all 326 +19.1% +7.8% 53% 44% +63.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 44% +63.3%
10% -2.6% 40% +47.6%
15% -12.0% 37% +33.4%
20% -20.6% 34% +20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$81 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.21 per $1 lost it wins $4.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$39,587
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses174 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)326 / 327
History coverage308d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $161 +$31 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $98 +$102 +104%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $128 −$126 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 26 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 26 $65 +$52 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 26 $59 −$59 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $550 −$426 -77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 26 $302 +$84 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 26 $129 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 26 $45 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 26 $77 +$49 +64%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $51 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 23 $91 +$74 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 23 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 23 $48 +$46 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 23 $16 +$32 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 23 $8 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 22 $284 +$214 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 22 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 22 $8 +$7 +92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 21 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 21 $132 +$103 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 13 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 13 $132 −$10 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 13 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 13 $30 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 13 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 06 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 06 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 06 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 06 $65 +$41 +63%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 06 $28 +$30 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $64 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $62 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.86 · official $6.86 (match) · 2486 history records