Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04ae…5b9b other 374 markets active 2d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%162W / 209L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$5
tech 17% −$5
world 16% +$4
politics 11% −$2
crypto 9% +$3
sports 3% −$2
economics 3% $0
culture 1% −$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.3% -17.1% 0% 0% -22.4%
≤30d 239 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 36% -21.0%
≤90d 371 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 44% -7.9%
all 371 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 44% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 44% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 44% -16.7%
15% -31.0% 43% -24.8%
20% -37.8% 43% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses162 / 209
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)371 / 374
History coverage36d
Avg bet$0
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 23 $0 $0 -50%
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? Jun 20 $0 $0 -50%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Ricky Simón next? Jun 14 $0 $0 -57%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day Jun 14 $0 $0 +60%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $0 $0 -43%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Jun 14 $0 $0 -67%
Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Jun 14 $0 $0 -68%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Jun 14 $0 $0 -4%
Will Carson Williams win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 14 $0 $0 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 14 $0 $0 -7%
Will Brendan Allen be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 14 $0 $0 -68%
Will Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Jun 14 $0 $0 -68%
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -68%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -69%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -68%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -68%
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -37%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $0 $0 +200%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 43h
Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 43h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 6d
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL Yes $0 8d
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes $0 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No $0 13d
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Ricky Simón next? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day SELL Yes $0 13d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Carson Williams win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Brendan Allen be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 20 SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 National League Championship Series? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e SELL Yes $0 13d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.30 (match) · 1618 history records