Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x04ad…b698 world 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$986 (+21%) realized +$986 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +126% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +105% what you keep after slip
Net edge+105%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$7
sports 33% +$988
other 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+104.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 +126.3% +104.7% 53% 7% +10.0%
all 15 +126.3% +104.7% 53% 7% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +104.7% 7% +10.0%
10% +85.1% 7% -0.5%
15% +67.3% 7% -10.1%
20% +50.9% 7% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +126% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +248% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$5 · ×23.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×47.44 per $1 lost it wins $47.44
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$986
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage78d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 24 $394 +$8 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 24 $393 $0 +0%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 23 $398 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $395 $0 +0%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) May 16 $49 +$981 +1983%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) May 14 $487 +$6 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 13 $487 −$1 -0%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) May 11 $481 +$10 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $482 $0 -0%
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) May 09 $472 +$10 +2%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 08 $472 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) Apr 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Apr 07 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $86 3m
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $316 6m
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $394 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $106 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $393 4h
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $396 22h
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $398 22h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $395 23h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $395 25h
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Auckland FC $25 39d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Auckland FC $24 39d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $15 40d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 40d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 40d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $15 40d
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) BUY FC Machida Zelvia 99¢ $487 42d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 42d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $477 42d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $487 42d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY Sevilla FC 98¢ $481 46d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $385 46d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 46d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $385 46d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 46d
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) BUY Viborg FF 98¢ $472 47d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $472 47d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $472 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records