Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x04aa…2e69 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,080 (+3%) realized +$558 · open +$522
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%35W / 38L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$1,408
14 days+$1,455
30 days+$1,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$750
other 4% +$2,726
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 54% -2.2%
≤30d 73 -14.2% -22.3% 48% 42% -5.1%
≤90d 73 -14.2% -22.3% 48% 42% -5.1%
all 73 -14.2% -22.3% 48% 42% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 42% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 38% -14.2%
15% -36.6% 33% -22.5%
20% -42.8% 23% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -41% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$275 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized+$558
Unrealized+$522
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses35 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage13d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 41¢ 100¢ $363 $885 +$522 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,261 +$1,399 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,072 +$528 +49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,225 +$525 +43%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,475 −$2,475 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,405 +$2,726 +194%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $280 +$86 +31%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $265 −$245 -93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,624 +$134 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $251 +$113 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $190 +$100 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,711 −$1,708 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $397 −$392 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $520 +$605 +116%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $527 +$425 +81%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $55 +$83 +150%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $216 −$211 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $643 −$323 -50%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $194 +$64 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $220 +$155 +70%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $277 +$58 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $492 +$633 +129%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $215 +$121 +56%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $223 −$182 -82%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $458 −$458 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $731 +$319 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,090 +$453 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $197 +$86 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $59 +$307 +525%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,708 +$492 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $476 +$334 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $210 −$206 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $217 +$375 +172%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $209 −$205 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $141 −$16 -11%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $90 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $330 −$244 -74%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $184 +$105 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $271 +$300 +111%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,693 +$1,007 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $245 −$241 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $239 +$51 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $167 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $80 +$44 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $369 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $123 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $158 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $1,537 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $2,165 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $795 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $655 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $86 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $54 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $636 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $13 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $12 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $134 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $22 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $81 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $468 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $884.56 · official $884.56 (match) · 330 history records