Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x04aa…2c44 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%16W / 92L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$7
politics 20% −$2
economics 8% −$1
sports 6% +$25
culture 3% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 9% -9.4%
all 108 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 8% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 8% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 6% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×8.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses16 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage94d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $344 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $192 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $122 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $119 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $390 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $113 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $124 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $120 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $308 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $125 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $350 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $126 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 12 $114 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 3h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 21h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $80 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $16 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 24d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 28d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $113 34d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $113 34d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $124 36d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $124 36d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $119 36d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $120 37d
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $57 42d
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $65 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.48 · official $78.48 (match) · 282 history records