Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04a6…84f9 weather 14 markets active 6d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-68%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$14
weather 41% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-69.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.9% -52.8% 50% 0% -35.3%
≤30d 14 -65.9% -69.1% 21% 7% -75.4%
≤90d 14 -65.9% -69.1% 21% 7% -75.4%
all 14 -65.9% -69.1% 21% 7% -75.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.1% 7% -75.4%
10% -72.1% 7% -77.8%
15% -74.8% 7% -79.9%
20% -77.3% 7% -81.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records