Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04a5…28d6 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,289 (-18%) realized +$215 · open −$2,504
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$9,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$2,503
sports 1% +$88
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 16 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 50% +2.9%
≤90d 16 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 50% +2.9%
all 16 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 50% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 50% +2.9%
10% -2.2% 44% -7.0%
15% -11.6% 44% -16.0%
20% -20.3% 31% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$27 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$9,063
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$2,504
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)16 / 31
History coverage19d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10,660 $8,210 −$2,449 (-23%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 45¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Brazil (6) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -73%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$47 +153%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$43 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 40m
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 44m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 54m
Will Brazil (6) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes $7 56m
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,055 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 44¢ $102 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 16¢ $21 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $20 29h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,054 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 24¢ $20 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 39¢ $23 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $21 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 79¢ $105 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,063.10 · official $9,183.01 · 73 history records