Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x04a5…d093 sports 1075 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,334 (+6%) realized +$7,079 · open +$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%596W / 434L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$911est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$8,628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,782
7 days+$3,860
14 days+$3,843
30 days+$4,211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$349
other 46% +$6,635
world 1% +$156
crypto 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +33.7% +21.0% 64% 52% +1.7%
≤30d 351 +17.4% +6.2% 58% 52% -2.7%
≤90d 1030 +11.1% +0.5% 58% 55% -4.4%
all 1030 +11.1% +0.5% 58% 55% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 55% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 53% -13.5%
15% -17.9% 48% -21.9%
20% -25.9% 38% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$98 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$8,628
Realized+$7,079
Unrealized+$255
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses596 / 434
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$911
Open positions45
Markets (closed)1030 / 1075
History coverage64d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $462 $465 +$3 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $450 $459 +$9 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $348 $441 +$93 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $426 $429 +$3 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $294 $303 +$9 (+3%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $164 $195 +$31 (+19%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $156 $191 +$35 (+22%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $174 $187 +$13 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $130 $185 +$55 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $179 $184 +$6 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $124 $183 +$59 (+48%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 409 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $251 +$88 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $292 +$308 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $598 +$2 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $409 +$191 +47%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $426 +$174 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $138 +$462 +335%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $459 −$152 -33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $262 −$258 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $501 −$498 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $480 +$120 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $634 −$34 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $156 +$444 +285%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $438 +$162 +37%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $582 +$18 +3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $450 +$150 +33%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $510 +$90 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $564 +$36 +6%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $588 +$12 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $184 −$180 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 +$396 +194%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $392 +$208 +53%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $196 +$404 +207%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $216 +$384 +178%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $192 +$408 +212%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $588 +$12 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $198 −$198 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $288 +$312 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $462 +$138 +30%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $582 +$18 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $228 +$372 +163%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $426 −$426 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $360 −$360 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $576 +$24 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $396 +$204 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $378 +$222 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $903 −$303 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 +$545 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $196 +$96 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $282 +$318 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $144 +$456 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $460 −$122 -26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $465 −$462 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $483 +$117 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $390 +$210 +54%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $438 −$438 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $430 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $298 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $2 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $292 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $350 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $46 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $300 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $280 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $138 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $262 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $501 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $46 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $26 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $40 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $6 15h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $136 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $166 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $22 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $56 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $45 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,628.06 · official $8,612.85 (match) · 2303 history records