Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04a2…e16c
other · 242 markets active 7h ago
0.0score
−$1,431 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,832 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,276
Realized−$1,832
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses144 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)396 / 242
History coverage60d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 15 History 396 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,587
7 days−$6,996
14 days−$5,547
30 days−$1,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $369 $484 +$116 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 81¢ 98¢ $354 $431 +$77 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $354 $401 +$47 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $192 $236 +$43 (+23%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $164 $203 +$38 (+23%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $188 $185 −$3 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $127 $118 −$9 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $255 $94 −$161 (-63%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $56 $52 −$5 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 63¢ 48¢ $56 $42 −$14 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 11¢ 42¢ $3 $9 +$7 (+276%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 59¢ 43¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $45 $5 −$39 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 20¢ 57¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+192%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 81¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? No 49¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $60 +$13 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$21 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $44 +$89 +204%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $62 +$20 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$19 +3384%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$137 +658%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$27 +483%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $226 −$166 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$359 +93957%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$102 +126253%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$650 -449640%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 12 $237 −$318 -134%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$4 -9056%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $45 +$14 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 12 $74 −$152 -206%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$84 +105222%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$43 +43931%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $149 −$99 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$250 +343488%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$47 -101009%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -314%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$34 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$35 -391%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$110 -67044%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Jun 12 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$381 +1472654%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$53 -94026%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $292 −$277 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$180 +295792%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$75 +397205%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $225 −$226 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$617 +6684%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$49 +157%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$8 +7550%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$18 -6016%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$95 +56849%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Jun 12 $83 −$146 -176%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $156 −$136 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$33 -24288%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$3,852
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $91 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 7h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $103 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $482 8h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $94 8h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 9h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $113 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 10h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $103 10h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $142 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $351 12h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $67 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $43 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 13h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 14h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $189 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $216 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $132 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $461 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $47 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $91 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+193.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 +209.6% +180.1% 28% 26% -30.1%
≤30d 269 +186.2% +158.9% 34% 30% -11.9%
≤90d 396 +224.3% +193.4% 36% 33% -11.4%
all 396 +224.3% +193.4% 36% 33% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +193.4% 33% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here +165.3% 29% -19.9%
15% +139.7% 25% -27.6%
20% +116.2% 23% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,275.57 · official $2,273.74 (match) · 3500 history records