Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x04a1…d6e6 sports 697 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,987 (+3%) realized +$2,044 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%364W / 284L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$86
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$80
sports 30% +$636
politics 14% +$70
other 14% +$1,149
crypto 4% +$19
tech 4% +$1
economics 0% +$6
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.4% +0.8% 50% 25% -7.7%
≤30d 33 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 39% -7.7%
≤90d 147 +18.5% +7.2% 57% 39% -9.3%
all 648 +17.1% +6.0% 56% 42% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 42% -6.8%
10% -4.2% 40% -15.7%
15% -13.4% 37% -23.9%
20% -21.9% 34% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$2,149
Realized+$2,044
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses364 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions48
Markets (closed)648 / 697
History coverage519d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 648 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $76 $111 +$35 (+47%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 99¢ $98 $109 +$11 (+11%)
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 98¢ $90 $98 +$8 (+9%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 97¢ $78 $97 +$19 (+24%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 84¢ $91 $84 −$6 (-7%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 99¢ $76 $79 +$3 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 60¢ 60¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $72 $71 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 93¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 69¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $70 $69 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $71 $63 −$9 (-12%)
Will Cloud9 New York finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 99¢ 56¢ $109 $62 −$47 (-43%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 100¢ $57 $61 +$4 (+6%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 59¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 52¢ $68 $52 −$15 (-23%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 82¢ 86¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+4%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 70¢ $43 $35 −$8 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$18 +89%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $24 +$96 +400%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Overwatch: Please Not Hero Ban vs MURASH GAMING (BO3) - OCS Japan Stag Jun 09 $2 +$4 +285%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $104 +$12 +11%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $71 −$11 -15%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 09 $53 +$12 +22%
Overwatch: REVATI vs Lazuli (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 09 $20 +$60 +300%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,597 +$3 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,081 +$19 +1%
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $21 +$4 +20%
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $19 +$8 +45%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1,594 +$6 +0%
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: TOR (-1.5) vs Carolina Royal Ravens (+1.5) May 30 $7 +$10 +150%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Falcons PH vs Omega Esports (BO5) - MPL May 29 $11 +$4 +35%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Falcons PH vs Omega Esports - Game 1 Wi May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Liquid PH - Game 1 Winner May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Falcons PH vs ONIC PH - Game 1 Winner May 29 $11 +$20 +178%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC - Map 1 Winner May 29 $38 +$32 +82%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Falcons PH vs ONIC PH (BO5) - MPL Phili May 29 $26 +$58 +223%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 28 $175 $0 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $2,084 +$16 +1%
Will Trump say "Drone" this week? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference? Apr 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Ind Apr 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Titan Esports Club vs Leviatán Soul (BO3) - CN Leag Apr 24 $36 +$5 +15%
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Ivory (+1.5) Apr 24 $127 −$41 -32%
Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs Roar Gaming (+1.5) Apr 22 $1 +$1 +92%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Apr 22 $12 +$3 +27%
Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Ivory (+1.5) Apr 22 $66 −$63 -94%
Dota 2: Ivory vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $17 +$7 +41%
Dota 2: Ivory vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $17 +$7 +41%
Dota 2: Ivory vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A Apr 22 $55 +$16 +30%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $3,496 +$4 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $12 +$5 +43%
Game Handicap: PAR (-1.5) vs Carolina Royal Ravens (+1.5) Apr 18 $22 +$22 +100%
Will Tampa Bay Lightning advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? Apr 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? Apr 15 $88 −$88 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 94¢ $75 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $72 1h
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $109 1h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $100 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 5d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 60¢ $0 5d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 60¢ $3 5d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 60¢ $3 5d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 60¢ $8 5d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 60¢ $8 5d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 60¢ $38 5d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $24 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 60¢ $1 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 60¢ $3 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 24¢ $3 6d
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad - Game 2 Winner BUY SuperBad 24¢ $20 6d
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad - Game 1 Winner BUY SuperBad 24¢ $10 6d
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad - Game 1 Winner BUY SuperBad 24¢ $10 6d
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad - Game 2 Winner BUY SuperBad 24¢ $1 6d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY 46¢ $1 6d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $113 7d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $24 7d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $29 7d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $6 7d
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 7d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $69 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 82¢ $41 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,149.40 · official $2,149.32 (match) · 2030 history records