Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04a1…ead7 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate18%10W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$14
politics 11% −$7
other 8% +$5
sports 1% −$7
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 46 -1.8% -11.1% 15% 9% -9.5%
all 56 -1.6% -11.0% 18% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 7% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses10 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage574d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $80 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $163 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $83 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$10 +165%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$7 +70%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $9 +$5 +59%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $18 +$23 +127%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 05 $80 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $80 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $13,551 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 5h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records