Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x049b…5a12 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$766 (-42%) realized −$666 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$531
14 days−$531
30 days−$747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 53% −$236
crypto 37% −$600
other 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-70.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -95.1% -95.6% 0% 0% -65.7%
≤30d 44 -67.0% -70.2% 5% 5% -68.6%
≤90d 44 -67.0% -70.2% 5% 5% -68.6%
all 44 -67.0% -70.2% 5% 5% -68.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.2% 5% -68.6%
10% -73.0% 5% -71.6%
15% -75.6% 5% -74.3%
20% -78.0% 5% -76.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$19 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized−$666
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 42
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage67d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $266 $200 −$67 (-25%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $206 $180 −$26 (-12%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $12 −$7 (-37%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 10 $441 −$117 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 18-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 13? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 23? May 23 $5 +$56 +1059%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $52 2m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $52 2m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 10m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $37 16m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $38 16m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $143 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $143 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $37 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $21 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $84 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $75 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $59 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $138 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 6¢ $324 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $52 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $146 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $27 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $21 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $80 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.61 · official $564.54 (match) · 135 history records