Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x049a…5382
crypto · 96 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses46 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage48d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 22¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+118%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 46¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+95%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 29? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $2 +$1 +27%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 07 $1 +$1 +124%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $1 $0 +24%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 06 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 06 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 06 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$13
other 10% −$2
sports 6% −$1
weather 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -48.6% -53.5% 30% 15% -41.2%
≤30d 43 -48.0% -53.0% 30% 16% -43.9%
≤90d 93 -17.9% -25.7% 49% 34% -19.3%
all 93 -17.9% -25.7% 49% 34% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 34% -19.3%
10% -32.9% 26% -27.0%
15% -39.3% 22% -34.0%
20% -45.3% 14% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.90 · official $2.90 (match) · 268 history records