Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0495…c6d5 crypto 982 markets active 4d ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-10%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate49%481W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$13
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$101
weather 8% −$11
sports 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -31.9% -38.4% 53% 26% -37.9%
≤30d 451 -10.0% -18.5% 34% 24% -18.0%
≤90d 981 -11.5% -19.9% 49% 28% -19.4%
all 981 -11.5% -19.9% 49% 28% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -19.4%
10% -27.6% 20% -27.1%
15% -34.6% 17% -34.2%
20% -41.0% 15% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses481 / 500
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)981 / 982
History coverage83d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 981 Trades
no open positions (476 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 44¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 90¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 83¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 93¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 8¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 85¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1545 history records