Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:12:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0492…32e9 crypto 433 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1330 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,365 (-6%) realized −$3,340 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%206W / 688L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1329.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$963
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1330 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 894 -56.1% -60.2% 23% 19% -19.1%
≤30d 894 -56.1% -60.2% 23% 19% -19.1%
≤90d 894 -56.1% -60.2% 23% 19% -19.1%
all 894 -56.1% -60.2% 23% 19% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1329.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.2% 19% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -64.1% 14% -26.8%
15% -67.5% 9% -33.9%
20% -70.7% 7% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$27 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$3,340
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses206 / 688
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)894 / 433
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1329.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 894 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 70¢ 36¢ $51 $26 −$25 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.64 · official $41.62 · 3500 history records