Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0490…cec7 crypto 1462 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$284 (-7%) realized −$284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%843W / 809L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day81.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$691
7 days−$741
14 days−$838
30 days−$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 476 -48.6% -53.5% 30% 18% -48.1%
≤30d 1649 -16.4% -24.4% 51% 38% -24.8%
≤90d 1652 -16.4% -24.3% 51% 38% -24.8%
all 1652 -16.4% -24.3% 51% 38% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 38% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 27% -32.0%
15% -38.2% 16% -38.6%
20% -44.3% 8% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses843 / 809
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1652 / 1462
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day81.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1652 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$3 -1538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$5 -150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -787%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -1742%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$5 -1016%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -1006%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -992%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$6 -279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -963%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$4 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -1291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records