Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x048f…661a politics 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
politics 40% −$22
sports 9% +$29
crypto 4% −$1
economics 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 124 +2.1% -7.6% 3% 2% -9.6%
all 136 +5.2% -4.8% 5% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 4% -9.6%
10% -13.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -22.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -29.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$1 · ×16.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage115d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $263 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $263 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $238 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $277 −$2 -1%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $276 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $302 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $282 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $221 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $231 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $276 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $275 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $290 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $305 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $227 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $216 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $637 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $305 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $519 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 3h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 3h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 13h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 10d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $36 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $238 22d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $268 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $268 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 26d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $294 27d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $294 27d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $210 27d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 28d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $307 28d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records