Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x048f…cf1a sports 1004 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$368 (+4%) realized +$338 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%575W / 426L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day47.2pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$414
14 days+$26
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$321
crypto 8% −$57
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -26.0% -33.1% 43% 42% -35.5%
≤30d 377 -0.1% -9.7% 60% 59% -7.8%
≤90d 1001 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 55% -7.5%
all 1001 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 55% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 55% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 51% -16.3%
15% -26.8% 43% -24.4%
20% -33.9% 33% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$338
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses575 / 426
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1001 / 1004
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day47.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1001 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 100¢ $19 $38 +$19 (+98%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ 100¢ $15 $26 +$12 (+78%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $28 +$12 +43%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $21 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$19 +129%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $10 +$9 +96%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$3 +119%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$10 +55%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$9 +46%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $1 0m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $1 0m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $1 0m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $15 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $5 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 83¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 72¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 72¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 72¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 68¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 75¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 75¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.96 · official $68.02 (match) · 3500 history records