Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x048c…4b9d crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%21W / 2L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 0% -6.4%
≤90d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 0% -6.4%
all 23 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 0% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -6.4%
10% -20.5% 0% -15.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -23.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses21 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 93¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.32 · official $10.75 · 49 history records